World T20 Preview

While I’m not a complete convert to 20/20 cricket, I do substantially prefer it to the 50 over version, at least in part because it is so much less predictable. There are 6 or 7 sides that could conceivably win the tournament, and almost every team is capable of beating any other if things go their way. The format also exacerbates this situation with the first group stage consisting of only two games. The format seems to be based on the hope that the weaker teams (Bangladesh, Zimbabwe, Ireland and Afghanistan) will lose twice and head home, but one slip up against them could see one of the major nations having a very brief tournament indeed. Once the group stage is over then the ludicrously named Super Eights stage will see two groups of four, with the top two qualifying for the semis. This time, no points carry over from the Group Stage.

Group A (Pakistan, Bangladesh, Australia)

Pakistan

It’s a cliché to say that Pakistan are unpredictable, but it’s one based on a lot of evidence. As the top seeds and defending champions Pakistan would normally expect to be right up there as favourites, but the lack of recent international cricket, the fact that no Pakistani players appeared in the IPL this year and the political ructions that saw several senior players suspended recently all mean that it’s hard to make any strong judgements. What can be said is that in Shahid Afridi and Abdul Razzaq, Pakistan have possibly the best two all-rounders in the T20 format, and that they have plenty of stroke-playing batsmen. Were Umar Gul and Sohail Tanvir available then I’d be tempted to predict them to retain the title. As it is, I’m saying Semi-Finalists, but they could just as easily go out in the group stage.

Bangladesh

The T20 format should play to their strengths, they have some fine stroke-players with the likes of Aftab Ahmed, Mohammed Ashraful and (especially) Tamim Iqbal all having the attributes for the shortest form of the game. The success of spin bowlers in the last IPL also would be a positive indicator for them. They are certainly capable of beating anyone on their day, and with a more favourable draw would have been a good bet for the Super Eights. As it is, they probably will depart after the Group Stage, but I’d expect them to push both opponents very close.

Australia

If there is an international cricket tournament the default assumption is that Australia will probably win. But they haven’t quite mastered T20 yet, which is reflected in them actually being the lowest seed in this group. Their batting looks a bit sketchy, Warner and Watson are a top class opening partnership, but the middle order features either the unproven (Steven Smith, Daniel Christian) or those who don’t seem to have a natural technique for the format (Michael Clarke and Mike Hussey). Still David Hussey, Cameron White and Brad Haddin mean they have lots of options. Bowling looks much stronger. Dirk Nannes is proven and Mitchell Johnson and Shaun Tait offer wicket-taking potential. They may also have received a boost with Brett Lee getting injured yesterday as he looked well off his best in the IPL and he can now be replaced by Doug Bollinger or Ryan Harris who both impressed. Bollinger probably had the better tournament, but they may feel that three left arm quicks might offer insufficient variety. Overall it’s a solid team, but if Johnson or Tait’s radar goes askew then they could go for plenty of runs and I’m not sure they have a batting line up to make the really big scores. Super Eights.

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Group B (Sri Lanka, New Zealand, Zimbabwe)

Sri Lanka

If the IPL form is continued then Sri Lanka have comfortably the best bowling attack in the tournament. Murali, Malinga and Mathews were consistently excellent, while Mendis  got less opportunities but was successful when he did. The problems they may have are with the batting. Sangakkara was in poor form during the IPL, Dilshan was worse, while age finally seemed to be getting to Sanath Jayasuria. Jayawardene eventually played himself into some touch and Mathews did well on the few occasions when he got to bat, but there are clear worries for Sri Lanka here – particularly as Mathews is the only bowler who can bat so their tail is relatively long. Still, form is temporary, and either Sanga or Dilshan finding their touch plus  their bowling should see them through to the Semi-Finals.

New Zealand

New Zealand seem to have had terrible luck with injuries in recent tournaments, which is clearly very damaging when they have such a small pool of talent, but they seem to have all their big names available this time, and I think they could do very well. Their batting is full of players who can hit the ball very hard – Ryder, Guptill, Taylor and Oram can all score at faster than 2 runs a ball. Bond and Vettori are both available, and the support bowling is competent. I see NZ having a great tournament and becoming Finalists.

Zimbabwe

After a few years of utter shambles, Zimbabwean cricket seems to be on an upward trajectory. They are competing regularly again, and they have brought back into the fold almost all the players who political considerations had kept out of the team. A victory over Australia in a warm-up game shows their potential. But they are in a tough group and the talent available simply doesn’t suggest anything other than a Group Stage exit.

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Group C (India, South Africa, Afghanistan)

India

The early deadline for selection of tournament squads – before the IPL season – has hurt India more than most teams. While the likes of Uthappa and Ojha looked excellent in the IPL, they aren’t in the squad, while Yuvraj Singh who looked unfit and unmotivated, Praveen Kumar and Piyush Chawla all might have played themselves out of contention otherwise are playing. The bowling looks a little underpowered. No problems with Zaheer Khan and Harbhajan Singh, Nehra looks fine too, but the rest of the overs might be trickier. As for the batting, it’s full of clean hitters who are capable of very fast scoring, but with no Tendulkar and an injured Sehwag, Gambhir is the only genuinely top class batsman. Pathan and Raina can demolish good bowling but I’m not convinced they are able to do it against top class bowlers, and very few Indian batsmen look comfortable against the short ball. Super Eights

South Africa

In the last T20 South Africa looked commanding in winning every game up until the semi-final when they failed to chase 149 against Pakistan. This was added to a long list of important games when the team has supposedly choked, seemingly the only explanation to cover why the team has not won anything. This time they seem to have some other hurdles to overcome, particularly with their batting, which didn’t look great in the IPL. Graeme Smith went home injured, de Villiers was in poor form, Gibbs struggled and was dropped, Duminy didn’t make many runs either. Jacques Kallis did make stacks of runs, but not always quickly enough. On paper, it’s a formidable line-up, and Loots Bosman and Albie Morkel add big hitting potential, but they will need to up their game. No problems with the bowling, where Steyn, Langeveldt and the Morkel brothers are all wicket-takers, Theron is a good option and van der Merwe is a safe spin option. I think they’ll break the hoodoo. Winners

Afghanistan

The progress of the Afghan team is an amazing and heart-warming story and I’m sure they’ll have the support of every neutral. They also have some good players as they proved in overcoming the Dutch and the UAE to qualify. Unfortunately they’ve ended up in a group with the two teams best equipped to deal with weaker opposition and I think the Afghan bowlers could be in for a tough tournament. The batting is more likely to impress, but sadly not enough to escape the Group Stage. In years to come though, I think the gap could well narrow significantly.

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Group D (West Indies, England, Ireland)

West Indies

The Windies are a strong T20 team, they are at home and in Gayle and Pollard they have two players who can win matches on their own. The batting is flaky, the bowling lacks penetration, but these aren’t fatal flaws in T20. They could quite easily win the tournament. But I have a feeling they won’t. Super Eights.

England

The perennial problem for England’s one day team has been the middle order, but some judicious overseas recruitment means that for once that shouldn’t be an issue this time. Pietersen, Morgan and Collingwood are as good as anyone (even if Pietersen hits the field too often and Colly gets becalmed against spin) and Wright and Yardy can contribute. The opening pair of Lumb and Kieswetter is untried, and I think Kieswetter may struggle. Lumb did well in the IPL and his approach of trying to hit a boundary every ball at least means he isn’t likely to get bogged down, even if he does play and miss a lot. I have doubts over the bowling though. Swann hasn’t played much top level T20, and if the ball doesn’t swing then England’s fast medium bowlers could go for a lot of runs. Super Eights.

Ireland

Ireland have consistently shown themselves to be the strongest of the associate nations and capable of competing with the test teams in one day cricket. Their team is experienced and settled, and well suited to the format. But the difficulties of losing their best players to England (first Ed Joyce, then Eoin Morgan) is a big hurdle to overcome. Their batting is solid enough, but struggles with very fast scoring. Their best hope of progress is if their matches are low-scoring, but I think it’ll be a Group Stage exit.